|
No
betting system can consistently beat casino games of pure chance
such as craps, but that does not stop hopeful gamblers believing
in them. One of the best known systems is the Martingale in which
the player starts by betting $1 and doubles his bet whenever he
loses. Upon winning, he starts over at $1. The idea is to realize
a net win of $1 after every eventual win. This system fails because
the player will either run out of money after having to double his
bet several times in a row after a streak of losing bets, or he
will be unable to bet the amount dictated by the system because
it would exceed the maximum bet allowed by the casino.
Gambler's
fallacy
Other
systems depend on the gambler's fallacy, which in craps terms is
the belief that past die rolls influence the probabilities of future
die rolls. For example, the gambler's fallacy indicates that a craps
player should bet on 11 if an 11 has not appeared or has appeared
too often in the last 20 rolls. In reality, each roll of the dice
is an independent event, so the probability of rolling an 11 is
exactly 1/18 on every roll, even if 11 has not come up in the last
100 rolls or if 11 has come up 5 times in the last 5 rolls.
Parity Hedge System
The parity hedge system is a hoax promulgated by Quatloos. Despite
the fact that no such system exists (indeed, it is a mathematical
impossibility), several gambling-related web sites have retold the
'parity hedge' story without attribution.
Dice setting or Dice Control
Main article: Dice control
Another approach is to "set" the dice in a particular
orientation, then throw them in such a manner that they do not tumble
randomly. The theory is that by doing so, one or both of the dice
will be more likely to show certain numbers. Unlike other systems,
this one is not mathematically absurd, because if it were possible
to alter the probabilities of each outcome, then winning systems
could be devised. Nevertheless, the casinos take steps to prevent
this. The dice are supposed to hit the back wall of the table, which
makes controlled spins more difficult. Whether it is possible for
human beings to consistently exercise the precise physical control
necessitated by the theory is a source of controversy. A small but
dedicated community of controlled shooters maintain records and
claim proof of dice influencing in casino conditions. Frank Scoblete
and Stanford Wong, authors of books that feature dice control techniques,
believe that it is possible to alter the odds in the player's favor
by dice control. In addition, some people offer to teach dice-setting
skills, for a substantial fee. However, there has been no independent
conclusive evidence that such methods can be successfully applied
in a real casino.
Miscellaneous
Craps is such a popular game, its terminology is often found as
colloquialisms in our language. The terms "on a roll",
"crapshoot", "no dice", "crap out",
"Snake Eyes" and "do it the hard way" all trace
their origins to the game of craps.
As
casinos restrict players' options in blackjack, craps is increasing
in popularity, as it offers the best odds of all standard casino
games based on pure chance.
In
the classic crooner song "Luck Be a Lady Tonight," most
famously sung by Frank Sinatra, the lyrics, "A lady doesn’t
wander all over the room / And blow on some other guys dice,"
make reference to point of craps etiquette. A lady blowing on the
shooter's dice before he rolled was supposed to bring the shooter
good luck. It was seen as inappropriate for a lady to blow on the
dice of a man other than the one she was with at the casino. Of
course, the verse can also be interpreted as a sexual euphemism.
The
plot of the musical Guys and Dolls, which is the source of the above-mentioned
song, revolves around some illegal games of craps, which "float"
from location to location..
In
a seemingly unrelated application of this game, one of the Diehard
tests to test for statistical randomness will play several (hundred
thousand) craps games using the input data, and analyze the outcomes.
|