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Craps /Gamblers Fallacy

No betting system can consistently beat casino games of pure chance such as craps, but that does not stop hopeful gamblers believing in them. One of the best known systems is the Martingale in which the player starts by betting $1 and doubles his bet whenever he loses. Upon winning, he starts over at $1. The idea is to realize a net win of $1 after every eventual win. This system fails because the player will either run out of money after having to double his bet several times in a row after a streak of losing bets, or he will be unable to bet the amount dictated by the system because it would exceed the maximum bet allowed by the casino.

Gambler's fallacy

Other systems depend on the gambler's fallacy, which in craps terms is the belief that past die rolls influence the probabilities of future die rolls. For example, the gambler's fallacy indicates that a craps player should bet on 11 if an 11 has not appeared or has appeared too often in the last 20 rolls. In reality, each roll of the dice is an independent event, so the probability of rolling an 11 is exactly 1/18 on every roll, even if 11 has not come up in the last 100 rolls or if 11 has come up 5 times in the last 5 rolls.


Parity Hedge System


The parity hedge system is a hoax promulgated by Quatloos. Despite the fact that no such system exists (indeed, it is a mathematical impossibility), several gambling-related web sites have retold the 'parity hedge' story without attribution.


Dice setting or Dice Control


Main article: Dice control


Another approach is to "set" the dice in a particular orientation, then throw them in such a manner that they do not tumble randomly. The theory is that by doing so, one or both of the dice will be more likely to show certain numbers. Unlike other systems, this one is not mathematically absurd, because if it were possible to alter the probabilities of each outcome, then winning systems could be devised. Nevertheless, the casinos take steps to prevent this. The dice are supposed to hit the back wall of the table, which makes controlled spins more difficult. Whether it is possible for human beings to consistently exercise the precise physical control necessitated by the theory is a source of controversy. A small but dedicated community of controlled shooters maintain records and claim proof of dice influencing in casino conditions. Frank Scoblete and Stanford Wong, authors of books that feature dice control techniques, believe that it is possible to alter the odds in the player's favor by dice control. In addition, some people offer to teach dice-setting skills, for a substantial fee. However, there has been no independent conclusive evidence that such methods can be successfully applied in a real casino.


Miscellaneous


Craps is such a popular game, its terminology is often found as colloquialisms in our language. The terms "on a roll", "crapshoot", "no dice", "crap out", "Snake Eyes" and "do it the hard way" all trace their origins to the game of craps.

As casinos restrict players' options in blackjack, craps is increasing in popularity, as it offers the best odds of all standard casino games based on pure chance.

In the classic crooner song "Luck Be a Lady Tonight," most famously sung by Frank Sinatra, the lyrics, "A lady doesn’t wander all over the room / And blow on some other guys dice," make reference to point of craps etiquette. A lady blowing on the shooter's dice before he rolled was supposed to bring the shooter good luck. It was seen as inappropriate for a lady to blow on the dice of a man other than the one she was with at the casino. Of course, the verse can also be interpreted as a sexual euphemism.

The plot of the musical Guys and Dolls, which is the source of the above-mentioned song, revolves around some illegal games of craps, which "float" from location to location..

In a seemingly unrelated application of this game, one of the Diehard tests to test for statistical randomness will play several (hundred thousand) craps games using the input data, and analyze the outcomes.



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