Martingale is originally referred
to a class of betting strategies popular during 18th century France.
The simplest strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler
wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin
comes up tails. This strategy enabled the gambler to double his
bet after every loss, enabling the first win to recover all previous
losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake.A gambler with
infinite wealth with probability 1 eventually flips heads, the martingale
betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who practiced
it. However, none of these practitioners in fact possessed infinite
wealth (indeed, why would one bet if he possesses infinite wealth?),
and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt
those foolish enough to use the martingale over a long losing streak.
Analysis
Assume someone applies the martingale
betting system at an American roulette table, with 0 and 00 values;
a bet on either red or black will win 18 times out of each 38. If
the player's initial bankroll is $160 and the betting unit is $10,
the player will make a win in approximately 96% of sessions, gaining
an average of $4.30 from each winning session. In the remaining
4% of sessions, the player will "bust", exhausting his
bankroll, for a loss of $160. It follows then that the average session
losses of a gambler employing this strategy are $2.27. With a larger
bankroll, the odds of making a win before running out of cash increase;
however, the average winnings grow more slowly than the average
losses, therefore the game remains a losing proposition.
Modern casinos normally have table minimums and maximums in order
to prevent players from doubling their bets more than five or six
times, thus rendering the martingale system obsolete.
Explanation
The betting strategy
seems to work. We think of long streaks as impossible, and they
are the only thing that could actually bankrupt the betting party.
However, they're not actually impossible, just unlikely. One can
easily demonstrate that they are possible enough to keep the balance
at the casino.
Let's say that a very large number of people are each gambling $1
on the flip of a coin in their hand. About half will win, and about
half will lose, and thus the casino will pull in as much as it puts
out. For the next flip, it branches off and half bet $1, half bet
$2, in line with the strategy. Remember that previous flips won't
affect future flips, so half of the people betting $1 will win and
half will lose. Half of the people betting $2 will win and half
will lose. The casino will take in as much as it loses, again.
This simply continues to branch out. Half betting $4 win on the
next round, half lose. Even out at round 25, when gamblers are betting
$33,554,432 the casino will not become off-balance for winnings
and losings, because half of the gamblers betting that much will
win and half will lose.
Let's look at a different angle, suppose the game being played results
in 51% losing and 49% winning. This branches in the same way, except
the casino will always take in 2% of the total money gambled. Group
them by how much they bet, and we find that in each of those categories
the casino makes 2%, so in total they will make 2%. Interestingly,
the casino would make less money per round if everyone continued
to bet $1 each time, instead of increasing the betting pool -- but
each individual would play for a greater number of rounds before
quitting or going bankrupt. The casino still takes in the same 2%
of the total money gambled.